UN warns global temperatures likely near records through 2030
The World Meteorological Organization said global average temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels through 2030, with a 75 percent chance that the 2026–2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. The WMO assigned an 86 percent chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year, and a 91 percent chance that at least one year will temporarily exceed 1.5C; predicted annual temperatures range from 1.3C to 1.9C above pre-industrial levels. The outlook, compiled by Britain’s Met Office and 13 institutes, also notes an El Nino late in 2026 that raises 2027 risks, forecasts wet anomalies in the Sahel and dry anomalies over the Amazon, and predicts Arctic winters about 2.8C above 1991–2020 averages.
2026–2030 five-year mean likely above 1.5C.
Context
Global warming has set recent records, with the 11 hottest years since 2015. The WMO…
The full analysis
19 dimensions on this story — world impact, market read, and what happens next.
- Full ContextLocked
- Affected SectorsLocked
- Stock ImpactLocked
- Economic IndicatorHigher near-term food-price volatility…Locked
- Investor RelevanceLocked
- Professional RelevanceLocked
- Watch PointsOfficial El Niño confirmation and…Locked
- Probability of ChangeLocked
- Debate PointsWhether temporary breaches of 1.5C…Locked
- Historical ParallelRecent pattern of record warmth since…Locked
- Prerequisite KnowledgeLocked
- Follow-up QuestionsWill the predicted El Nino at the end…Locked
- Pros & ConsPolicymakers: can plan because WMO…Locked